By Tom$ at May 18, 2012 08:18
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Well, I didn't get an allocation, so, I'm not playing. Can you say "bubble"?
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By Tom$ at May 18, 2012 07:34
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Lots of interesting bargains. Of course, "bargains" can get cheaper, so, finding a suitable entry point in this "risk off" environment is tricky, to say the least.
Commodities are just getting pounded relentlessly. Not sure where the bottom is but I want to own energ...
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By Marcoh at May 10, 2012 12:58
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Details here. They went ex-div on 5/2 and pay on 5/15. Next ex-div is 8/2.
Long PAA.
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By Marcoh at May 09, 2012 11:20
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On Monday 5/7 ECT declared a Q1 distribution of $.574 per unit to unitholders of record as of market close on 5/21 payable on or before 5/31. They go ex-div on 5/17. My yield on cost will be 10.46%.
In selected energy prices news, WTI is about $96 and NatGas is about...
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By Tom$ at May 09, 2012 06:43
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Long WPRT (-25%)
WPRT reported yesterday and is getting hammered today. I need to hear the earnings call but I don't see anything that changes my mind. I'm a buyer.
Support = $23.75
I currently have an order in at near the 14-day 20% RSI level of $22.07. I ma...
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By Tom$ at May 01, 2012 13:16
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...on no particular news that i can find.
Disclosure: Long ECT +3.7%
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By Marcoh at May 01, 2012 11:45
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Details here. Shares of CHK closed +6.29% today on the news. In other news, NatGas is up another 3.63% today @ $2.37. Still no news on ECT's quarterly distribution.
Long CHK, ECT
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When doing your due dilligence ahead of an investment in an independent refiner such as CLMT, HFC, MPC, TSO, VLO, WNR, in addition to the usual research, one must become familiar with and closely follow "crack spreads" (see below for links to crack spread resources). &n...
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By Tom$ at April 25, 2012 13:15
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Disclosure: Long EMC. Closed $28.17 today.
I had overwritten my EMC positions by selling CALL options (buy/write strategy). I bought back my Jul $29 CALL positions on 4/23 and left my Jul $30 CALLs in place thinking that it'd take a 7% move betewen now and July...
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By Tom$ at April 25, 2012 10:04
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Disclosure: Long WPRT (-13.4%)
The secular trend of replacing petro-fueled engines with alt-fuel Nat Gas is being led by WPRT. A recent negative Barons article has caused ths stock to be punished from a recent peak of around $50 down to $30-ish.
This article about sums it...
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By Tom$ at April 16, 2012 07:42
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WPRT : filled @ $36.29 and @ $34.92
COSWF: order in @ 19.63
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By Tom$ at April 10, 2012 18:52
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I like these trades.
CLF below $65 down to $60 updside tgt: $94.
FCX below $36. upside tgt: $53.50
Disclosure:
Long CLF (-12.25%) I'll add more if it gets down near $60
Long FCX (-9%). I'l double down if it getrs down to 35.50
I'm getting clo...
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By Tom$ at April 09, 2012 17:37
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As described in a recent post, I exited my TOT position. Bought back my short CALL and sold my long position, +10% on the trade.
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By Tom$ at April 09, 2012 17:15
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Yes, I think so. It's a tough call, when to trim. Well, I own them to protect against a market correction, so, when the .SPX is down, it's time to sell some.
My cost basis for the JUN $125 SPY PUTs I own is as follows:
5 @ $1.43 (-13.5%)
5 @ $1.10 (+12%)
5 @$1.12 ...
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/04/us-foreclosure-idUSBRE83319E20120404
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Update 4/3: I had a feeling the Icahn hostile takeover of CVR Energy wasn't over. That's not how he rolls. Details here. Heads up RE UAN.
Update 3/22: MOS didn't make my initial screen because they're in FinViz' "Specialty Chemicals" category vs "Ag...
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By Tom$ at March 31, 2012 15:06
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As mentioned in an earlier post PVX is being acquired.
I exited my PVX position yesterday @ $11.91 (+57%). I just have no visibility into Pembina, the acquirer, which is trades only on the Toronto exchange.
In other news related to Canadian energy plays. I'm conside...
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By Tom$ at March 29, 2012 10:27
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Exited my remaining COSWF today @ $21.25 + 25%.
The market, including oil, feels like it's going to roll over. And the COSWF chart is broken. I think I'll be able to buy it back at a lower price.
As for TOT, I think I'll decalre victory and close it out.&nbs...
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By Tom$ at March 28, 2012 18:24
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Nat Gas is trading at $2.28 today. Dennis Gartman stated today that he would not be surprised to see it print a $1.xx at some point.
So, is the Nat Gas situation a good thing or a bad thing? It depends. If you are a producer, it's tough. Producers have be...
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By Marcoh at March 28, 2012 14:57
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...in particular materials and the energy complex. With few exceptions, however, The Augers were largely unfavorable for the equities I'm watching, specifically, MACDs and Parabolic SARs were bearish, so I didn't do much shopping. Two exceptions were PAA and ENB. &nbs...
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By Tom$ at March 27, 2012 13:11
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TOT down (-7%) today on news of a gas leak from a North Sea platform. this latest news article.
Here's a case where my risk mangement has worked very well. I thinned my TOT position recently, selling most recently @ $56.93.
I also sold covered calls on the remainde...
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By Marcoh at March 25, 2012 11:57
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Last night I stumbled across the Bloomberg symbol and page, USCRUHC1:IND, that tracks the price of a barrel of Bakken crude oil delivered over the Enbridge (GP ENB, MLP EEP) pipeline system to Clearbrook, MN. At Friday's close, Bakken crude traded at a $15.78 (17.35%) ...
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By Tom$ at March 23, 2012 06:50
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Just read a recent McDEP report on COSWF. COSWF is a Canadian syncrude supplier whom i have liked. My last position made ~+25%. I still own 100 shares.
I like the opportunity that this represents, according to McDep, a DOUBLE of the dividend is possible...
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By Marcoh at March 19, 2012 22:11
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Today copper's 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA to settle at $3.90. Platinum's and palladium's SMA's appear to be headed for bullish crosses.
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By Tom$ at March 16, 2012 09:22
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I have a few small speculative postitioons in Tech, based upon Paul McWilliams (Next Inning) research. Man, have my tech positions been a story of good news/bads news.
Good news:
My position in TWER has gone from -30% to + 25% this week. I had an accumulate strategy...
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By Marcoh at March 14, 2012 20:35
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Details here. Consequently, today I added 50% to my ECT @ $21.75, new basis $21.95, new yield on cost 10.82%. The article also reported "storage overhang", so I'm looking to add to my PNG. In a slightly related story, I'm still on the lookout for pipeline opport...
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By Tom$ at March 14, 2012 12:15
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Here's the situation:
Using the S&P 500 as a reference.
.SPX @ 1400-10% = 1260-20% = 112050-day SMA = 1335200-day SMA = 1260
The RSI=67, stochastics bullish, MACD bullish
I want to buy protection at around a 10% pullback, or arount the 200-day SMA. So, I...
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By Marcoh at March 06, 2012 14:57
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...but because of today's broad market selloff, my GTC buy orders on CHK and TPLM fired, new bases $23.7167 and $7.35 respectively. I also doubled down on AGNC @ $29.85, new basis $30.25, new yield on cost 16.53%. I missed bids on ECT and VLO by $0.05 and $0.065 repec...
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By Marcoh at March 06, 2012 09:55
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The writer of this Seeking Alpha article likes PAA for its business model and dividend growth potential. Also, and FWIW, they made it into my pipelines screen earlier this year. A look at their FinViz summary shows they're not exactly priced to move, and they have pap...
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For unknowm reasons, I now get Fox Business -and I kinda like it compared to CNBC.
Anyway - saw a very interesting report on Agriculture - most crops are at all time high prices. This could bode well for fertilizer and equipment moving forward. For a downside play - meat p...
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By Marcoh at March 03, 2012 08:25
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The Seeking Alpha articles here and here from 3/2 make compelling cases for VLO. The first is all about their numbers, the second also introduces macro factors that may work uniquely in their favor. By their FinViz summary, they have a 7.09 p/e, 6.27 foward p/e, 0.73 ...
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By Marcoh at March 02, 2012 16:56
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Today I bought some PNG, a NatGas storage MLP, @ $19.10, yield on cost 7.49%. In related NatGas news, the Baker Hughes NatGas Rig Count declined to 691 from last week's 710.
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By Tom$ at March 02, 2012 05:50
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Bought FCX @ $42.35 on 2/29
Given the liquidity pumped into the Euro zone, i think it's bullish for commodity assets. This takes the Eurozone banking collapse off the table. I think Greece is still a goner. But I think contagion is much less likely.
Oil feels ...
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By Tom$ at February 29, 2012 07:23
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To borrow a phrase from a Bloomberg Radio guest, I've been "uncomforatably long" for a while, so, i'm readjusting my portfolio. All indications appear to be that the S&P will continue to power higher. But this feels like a good time to raise cash, take some profit...
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By Marcoh at February 28, 2012 09:53
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On 2/24, the author of the Seeking Alpha article "The Problems Plaguing Chesapeake Energy", said he not only doesn't share my enthusiasm for the Baker Hughes NatGas Rig Count as I shared here, he advises his readers to beware of falling rig counts. He also disclosed he's sh...
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It's been a little over a month since Tom$'s "Indicators Trending" post to which I replied with a heads up that a number of indicators were either signaling overbought or headed toward overbought territory. Well, more indicators show overbought now, the Vix reads complacent...
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http://www.doubledividendstocks.com/blog/analysts-are-clueless-about-these-dow-dividend-stocks
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By Marcoh at February 24, 2012 14:43
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A fairly broad spectrum of 17 NatGas issues I follow including futures ETFs, large cap E&Ps, royalty trusts, pipelines, and tankers were all off today. CHK was down as low as $23.64 on a Q4 earnings miss, and I bought some @ $23.75. ECT, the Marcellus royalty trus...
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By Marcoh at February 23, 2012 14:38
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Today I bought some AGNC @ $30.65, yield on cost 16.31%. At today's close I was 55.83% cash, 28.25% bonds, 8.78% energy, 5.27% gold, and 1.86% agency-backed residential mortgage REITs. You gotta love the catchy symbol.
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By Marcoh at February 23, 2012 07:41
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In My Nascent 2012 Strategy, I declared my intent to go with a 100% momentum based strategy including day trading. I also wondered whether I was cut out for such a strategy. Well, it turned out I wasn't. I have, however, added a much larger technical analysis, i...
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In "Selling oil: TOT, COP, COSWF", RadCap mentioned his investment in KYN, a closed-end fund of MLPs (FinViz summary here; top 25 holdings here). Last night I was surfing CEFA, the Closed End Fund Associastion web site, and when I looked up KYN, I not only saw Kayne Anderso...
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By Marcoh at February 20, 2012 16:49
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I read this Bloomberg article last night RE Japan's NatGas imports, so I checked GLNG, GMLP, and TGP, and sure enough, they're all prospering. Insiders may recall I did well with GMLP whom I bought shortly after the tsunami hit northern Japan last year, but then got stopped...
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By Marcoh at February 17, 2012 08:08
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NOG is on sale today, and I noted on its chart it appears a bullish SAR reversal is imminent, its negative Chaikin's money flow is rising, and its below-the-zero-line MACD is curving up toward the signal line, so I added 40% to my position @ $24, then the bullish pivot point, new...
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By Marcoh at February 16, 2012 14:28
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...in our lifetimes, at least. This article lit up my news radar because of my position in KOG.
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By Tom$ at February 14, 2012 19:08
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Libor Probe
So, you thnik less regulation is the answer? Just asking.
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By Marcoh at February 14, 2012 16:19
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On Wednesday, Van Eck Global will launch an ETF that focuses on companies who use unconventional methods to recover crude oil and NatGas. Its symbol is FRAK. Details here.
Update 2/15: Priced @ $25.50, FRAK debuted this morning off slightly @ $25.496, moved between $...
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I've been drilling down (ba-dump-bum) in my search for Bakken takeover candidates, and that has led me to microcaps. On my radar: AXAS (mkt cap $343M, scary 5.1 p/b, but they're making money), TPLM (mkt cap $313M, p/b 1.44, losing money, but excellent earnings prospect...
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By Marcoh at February 10, 2012 14:13
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Crude oil was on sale today, so I added 50% to my KOG @ $8.80, new basis $8.7667. I also bought some NOG @ $23.25. At today's close I was 3.05% energy (all small cap Bakken O&G E&P plays), 5.13% gold, 28.49% bonds, and 63.33% cash. Greek debt deal worrie...
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By Marcoh at February 06, 2012 15:01
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In the "Could'a Would'a Should'a Department" of "My Nascent 2012 Strategy", I mentioned that I would research small cap pure Bakken players with an eye toward possible takeover targets. Today I bought some KOG (Mkt Cap $1.31B) @ $8.75. I also have my eye on NOG (...
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